By kos on George W. Bush
Dan Balz:
The Post-ABC News poll offers a revealing portrait of a restless electorate at the start of the campaign year. By 51 percent to 35 percent, Americans said they preferred to go in the direction outlined by congressional Democrats rather than the direction established by the president. On the eve of last year's State of the Union address, 45 percent said they preferred to follow the path of the president, compared with 39 percent who said they favored the Democrats' course.
By 54 percent to 38 percent, voters surveyed said they would vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate for the House in November. That is one of the largest margins favoring the Democrats in two decades, although the gerrymandered House districts mean that incumbents are safer today than they were in the past.
By 51 percent to 37 percent, Americans said they trust the Democrats more than the Republicans with the main problems facing the country over the next few years, the first time since spring 1992 that Democrats have gained more than 50 percent support on that question.
Balz notes that much will ride on King Bush's SOTU address, though I don't think it's as influential a tool as it may once have been. There are too many alternatives on TV for anyone but the biggest Bush fans and political junkies to tune in.
History suggests that Bush will get some sort of bounce regardless thanks to the inevitably fawning media coverage. The real question will be how long any such bounce will last, and whether congressional GOoPers will get any benefits from said theoretical bounce.
Iraq won't do Bush any favors (especially given the coverage of Woodruff's condition), the prescription drug debacle is already raising ire with the elderly (people who actually vote), and we've got a whole spate of investigataions and trials on tap which will further highlight the Republican culture of corruption and Bush's belief that he is an infallible monarch.
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