DJHJD

DJHJD

Friday, September 18, 2009

Keith and Rachel - my apologies

I love you both dearly. Especially you, Rachel - your beautiful smile and intellect - I just want to hang out with you and soak you up.

However, I'm reaching a saturation point for angry information about people acting badly. I've come to expect such bad behavior that nothing you share with me is remotely a surprise. It's almost more surprising that it's thought to be noteworthy.

More than twenty years ago, I stopped watching local TV news when our largest local affiliate ran all the way to Shreveport to lead with a murder story. People get angry, they have family arguments, they get drunk and argue, they try to steal sixty bucks from the corner convenience store and someone gets killed. Lather, rinse, repeat - is it news? Is it UNUSUAL?

Some ten years later, I stopped reading the local newspaper. Every single story was slanted toward a particular political and social viewpoint (one that did not include persons of color, as an example).

I was raised believing that watching the news and reading the newspapers were signs of intelligence.

It's a brave, new world.

I began to put my faith in blogs - people who undertook to recreate what reporters USED to do - research, read, assemble. Angry, ranting blogs weren't what I read - blogs that cross linked to original sources or other references so I could (and did) go read for myself were valuable.

Those resources haven't changed. But, all the anger is pointless. We're all raging at symptoms - screaming at a runny nose or a sore throat when the problem is that we should have covered our sneeze, or washed our hands appropriately, or eaten a better diet or gotten more sleep.

We are hip deep in crazy because no one's willing to deal with causes. Causes as in causal issues. Everyone's interested in having their own little world pampered, but there are no big picture thinkers who aren't either Matt Taibbi or the titans of Wall Street.

Frankly, if Matt Taibbi was running Wall Street, there'd be a whole lot more and better money being made and no more bubbles bursting.

KKR has a longer world view. AIG did not. Goldman does.

I'm thinking that the health insurance companies know that long-term, their goose is cooked. I'm thinking that they're looking to make hay while the sun still shines, and maybe extend the time that they reap those benefits.

Which leads me back to my point. I love you guys. I love you. You make me feel like I'm not alone. Yet, we're not making progress. We're tilting at windmills. I already gave up Daily Kos. It's time to go back to fundamentals. We have to re-teach civics and expand understanding. We have to give clear access to facts and provide an alternative to spin.

I know I'm going to be drawn back to you from time to time, but I need to take a break and re-focus.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Speed walking through Safeway

I recall there being a wide variety of laundry soap products; now, at one of the largest Safeway (Randall's) stores in the Houston market - there is only a wide variety of liquid Tide. Tide makes my pale, white skin break out, so I was hoping for something else.

They did have sugar-free Popsicles on sale, which was fun. They also still had a bunch of sugar free tapioca cups in the discount bin, so I grabbed a bunch. Either I've gone daft, or they only had a very small selection of bacon. They also had coffee on sale (which was what brought me into the store - I was out of bean). Dunkin Donuts beans are more expensive than Starbucks? Really? Safeway has prices marked in disparate ways, just as do all grocery chains - some containers are marked per pound, some per ounce, some per package. This requires math on the spot - which is the better deal? This one's on sale, but the price per measure isn't converted for the SALE price, only for the original price ..

Calculate, calculate, calculate. This one says it's organic, but is it fair trade? This one looks perfect, but it's decaf.

Finally, I reached a decision.

The little hand basket loaded to overflowing, I wandered over to the cash registers, so loaded up with last minute offerings that one can't see whether a cashier is there until one gets right up on the belt.

I remember when Randall's (before it was Safeway) used to have thirty plus types of mustard. Now, there are five or six.

Not that I don't care for Randall's now - but, how Randall's became Safeway is an excellent example of how American business is so focused on short term profit and not on long term stability and growth.

Back in the distant past, there were four or five grocery chains that dominated the Houston market. Kroger, Randall's and Weingarten's, Safeway, Gerland's and Feista. Feista, I believe was a Spanish market store created by the Weingarten family.

Of those, only Kroger and Safeway were multi-state chains.

Houston has seen and kicked Albertson's to the curb, along with Food Lion and a few others. Weingarten ran for the exits in the 1980s, wisely focusing on their real estate holdings. Gerland's gave up the ghost, although hints of it linger on in the Food Town chain. Fiesta moves from strength to strength. Kroger has been the king of the hill for decades.

Safeway, though, had a very strong market position. In about 1986, Safeway was put "in play" by Robert Haft (who were, at least in the business of running food and drug stores), and the board ran for cover with Kohlberg, Kravis Roberts (KKR) as their savior. This is sort of like leaping into the arms of the cannibal pygmies to save oneself from being eaten by marauding lions. Proving my axiom, KKR required that the company repay the borrowed money by selling off chunks.

Of course, KKR handled the filings and arranged the financing making a blizzard of cash.

The helpful investment house of KKR offered to broker the sale of huge chunks of Safeway, which had been so neatly assembled over fifty years following a strategy set in place by Merrill Lynch. Overseas operations, about half the total was all sold. The Houston operation, including its distribution warehouses and its brand spankin' new dairy factory to the Houston managers.

Who had to borrow the money.

From KKR.

Who made a shitload of money on THAT angle, too.

Enter "Apple Tree Markets".

Apple Tree was actually a TERRIFIC grocery chain, but the debt load was too great to sustain its operations, and pieces of it began to fly off. The dairy plant. Prime locations. The stores started to show their plight.

Finally, Apple Tree stores sold off their pieces to .. Randall's and Fiesta. Mostly to Randall's, which expanded hugely from Apple Tree's failure.

Randall's bought up the Tom Thumb stores in Dallas, along with Apple Tree stores all around the state. And they were large. And they were prosperous-ish.

And they loaded up on debt.

Kroger, being the 800 pound gorilla in the marketplace, only had to burp up a few tenths of a percentage of cash flow to turn a cranky, 1970s Kroger store into a Sak's like emporium, and Randall's had to keep up.

And the money kept flowing in ... (with acknowledgment to Tim Rice). Guess who loaned them the money???? (hint, their initials are KKR)

Well, ten years after taking the company private, the Safeway folks were .. expanding into new markets to replace those 1,000 or so stores that vanished when KKR took the company private.

And, guess how they re-entered Texas? By buying Randall's and paying a blizzard of money for it. That they borrowed. From KKR. But, wait - KKR was the majority owner of Randall's - and had provided Randall's all of the financing - so, how did they .. loan .. uh ..

And now, we have Safeway in Houston again.

And Kroger is still the 800 pound gorilla.

But KKR has made a TON of money! Retail centers have lost tenants, managers and employees have lost jobs, pensions are gone, choices are fewer - but KKR HAS MADE A TON OF MONEY!!!!!!

And, isn't that how it should work? A growing food and drug chain in DC decides to expand their presence, so they start buying stock in a large, publicly traded grocery and drug chain but the board of directors of the large, publicly traded grocery and drug chain want to retain their jobs and their panache, so they bargain with the devil, who requires them to sell off ONE HALF of their enterprise, pay enormous fees and interest, finances the sales of all the ONE HALF of their enterprise to the buyers - making interest and fees, then FIRES ALL THE DAMNED DIRECTORS ANYWAY, and then suggests - hey, you guys - you should be expanding into these markets you're not currently in (because we made you sell the stores you already had there) and SELLS THEM MORE STORES THEY ALREADY OWN.

Seems quite reasonable.

And we wonder why sub-prime mortgages didn't sound so bad.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Berlin calling

In 1975, I visited Berlin for about a week. I was 15 years old, and yet I was captivated. Berlin has a history going back a thousand years, is the amalgamation of a number of smaller cities and villages, and is now one of the most important and exciting cities in the EU.

And, in 1945, it was blown to smithereens. British bombs, then Russian artillery blew the city into rubble. Every structure of importance was reduced to its foundations. To look at Berlin today, one wouldn't realize that the heritage was reconstructed - it is a blending of new and old, modern and traditional, experimental and trusted.

Last night, I had a delightful surprise through an email from Philip. Just as a reminder, there are only two Philip(s) with one "l", and this one is the awesome one that stayed with me one summer a few years ago.

He, Philip, is engaged in an effort to re-define and revitalize Detroit.

People slag Detroit endlessly and have for decades, but most people have never visited there. A hundred years ago, Detroit was arguably the second most important city in the country - a status it held until the 1960s. The race riots of 1967, spurred by the division of the black neighborhoods by the development of I-75, accelerated "white flight", and the city itself has never recovered.

Detroit presents an incredible and unique opportunity - the re-invention of a major American city. Rather than rely on traditional methods to spur growth and re-settlement, it is an opportunity to think totally out of the box, and marry the advantages of human convergence in a major city with renewable, sustainable environments that reduce city infrastructure needs, support growth through reduced recurring costs, provide a healthful environment for residents and look forward to what comes next, rather than trying to be a better city for 1958.

My mind is a river of ideas for the concept.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Every once in a while

I feel validated.

It seems that someone in California has obtained the signatures to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would outlaw divorce completely.

Now, THAT would be marriage as a sanctity.